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Moving House - All of my beautiful angelfish must go ASAP to expert homes before 6th August 2017!!! - UK only

Mon 24 Jul 2017, 16:09 by **fredothedictator**

Comments: 3

# Buying Juveniles

## Buying Juveniles

I was just doing some mathematics because someone wanted to buy some young fish and requested a male and a female. Angelfish are hard to sex at a young age so I'm going to tell them if they buy two, they have a 50/50 chance that one is a male and one is a female. This got me thinking about the number of juveniles it's best to start out with...

With 6 fish, there is still a 3.125% chance that they'll all be the same sex, that's good but it's still a 1 in 32 chances that you'd be wasting your time (all males or all females). I does happen, it must.

If you don't know how to do the calculations yourself, for each additional fish over 6 you simply double the chances each time

e.g. 7 fish = 1 in 64, 8 fish = 1 in 128 etc.

With 10 fish, there's less than 0.2% chance (of all males or all females), that's a more favorable 99.8% that you have at least one of each sex. For those reasons I'm going to stick my neck out a bit and say 6 is a minimum, rather than an ideal. The closer to 8,9 & 10 you get, the better.

With 6 fish, there is still a 3.125% chance that they'll all be the same sex, that's good but it's still a 1 in 32 chances that you'd be wasting your time (all males or all females). I does happen, it must.

If you don't know how to do the calculations yourself, for each additional fish over 6 you simply double the chances each time

e.g. 7 fish = 1 in 64, 8 fish = 1 in 128 etc.

With 10 fish, there's less than 0.2% chance (of all males or all females), that's a more favorable 99.8% that you have at least one of each sex. For those reasons I'm going to stick my neck out a bit and say 6 is a minimum, rather than an ideal. The closer to 8,9 & 10 you get, the better.

## Re: Buying Juveniles

Obviously the more you buy, the more certain you can be of obtaining at least one pair, but one way of improving the odds is don't just pick the biggest ones!

Out of a typical batch of 200 youngster, I will generally keep 10 or 20 of the largest ones back as potential breeders. Having removed the largest ones, the ones left in the tank will put on a growth spurt, and a few weeks later I'll take a further 10 or 20. Then once they're a bit larger I make a final selection of the dozen-ish I want to keep.

In my experience 80-90% of the first ones selected will be male, whilst 70-80% of the second lot will be female.

Obviously it's important to compare like with like, so if you've got a batch where there are a number of varieties, bear in mind that some varieties grow faster than others, so make sure you're comparing size with others of the same variety.

Out of a typical batch of 200 youngster, I will generally keep 10 or 20 of the largest ones back as potential breeders. Having removed the largest ones, the ones left in the tank will put on a growth spurt, and a few weeks later I'll take a further 10 or 20. Then once they're a bit larger I make a final selection of the dozen-ish I want to keep.

In my experience 80-90% of the first ones selected will be male, whilst 70-80% of the second lot will be female.

Obviously it's important to compare like with like, so if you've got a batch where there are a number of varieties, bear in mind that some varieties grow faster than others, so make sure you're comparing size with others of the same variety.

_________________

Blessed are the cheesemakers!

**Pterophyllum**- Posts : 1539

Join date : 2012-02-08

Location : Gloucestershire

## Re: Buying Juveniles

My maths was more of a 'lucky dip' scenario, but your real world experience is invaluable.

I will be keeping some of my white gold marble ghosts back. I had been thinking about not just picking the largest, to disregard their random patterns and to look at the fish as a whole. My trouble is, I take too long to pick!!

I will be keeping some of my white gold marble ghosts back. I had been thinking about not just picking the largest, to disregard their random patterns and to look at the fish as a whole. My trouble is, I take too long to pick!!

## Re: Buying Juveniles

I find it gets harder and harder to choose with each generation. However one tip is to select negatively. Rather than trying to pick the fish you like the most, think about the characteristics you don't want to carry forward in future generations. It's much easier to let them go if you can identify something you don't like about a fish, be it body shape, head shape, etc. etc.

_________________

Blessed are the cheesemakers!

**Pterophyllum**- Posts : 1539

Join date : 2012-02-08

Location : Gloucestershire

## Re: Buying Juveniles

Interesantes los aportes y reflexiones realizadas. Yo cuando he seleccionado Escalares lo he realizado siguiendo la idea del tamaño, los machos por regla general son más grandes que las hembras y a su vez siempre me he quedado con media docena aproximadamente. Nunca se me había ocurrido ver las probabilidades que ofrecían como lo ha realizado Deans.

Interesting contributions and insights made. When I selected Angelfish I've done following the idea of size, males are generally larger than females and in turn I have always left with about half a dozen. It had never happened to see the odds offered as it has done Deans.

A greeting

**Google translator**Interesting contributions and insights made. When I selected Angelfish I've done following the idea of size, males are generally larger than females and in turn I have always left with about half a dozen. It had never happened to see the odds offered as it has done Deans.

A greeting

## Re: Buying Juveniles

On a random sample (I code too) I hit upon this 5% sample:

1.FMFFMF

2.MFFFMM

3.MFMFMM

4.FMMFFF

5.MMFMFF

6.FFMMFF

7.FMMFFF

8.MMFMFF

9.MFMMMM

10.MMMFFM

11.FMMFFF

12.MMMFMM

13.MMMMMF

14.FFFFFF all same sex (1)

15.FMMMFF

16.FMMFFF

17.FMMFFM

18.FMFFMF

19.FMFMMF

20.MMFMMM

21.MMMMMM all same sex (2)

22.MFMFMM

23.FMFFMF

24.FFMMMM

25.FMMMFF

26.MFFFMM

27.MMFMFM

28.FFMMMF

29.MFMMMF

30.FFFFFM

31.FMMMFM

32.MFFMMM

33.MFMFMF

34.MFMFFM

35.MMMMMF

36.FFFFMF

37.MFMFFF

38.MMFMMF

39.FFMMMM

40.FFFFMF

41.FFFMFF

42.MFFMMF

43.FMMMFM

44.MFFMFM

45.FFMMMM

46.MMMFFM

47.FFFMMM

48.FFFFMM

49.MFFMMF

50.FFMFFF

51.MFFFFM

52.FMFMMM

53.FMMMMM

54.MMMMMM all same sex (3)

55.FFMFFM

56.FFMMFF

57.FMFFFM

58.FMMFMM

59.MFMMFF

60.FFFFMM

61.FMMFMF

62.MMMMFF

63.MFMFMF

64.FFMMFM

65.MFFFMM

66.FMMMFF

67.FMFMFF

68.MMMMFM

69.FMFMFF

70.MFMFMF

71.MMFMMF

72.FMMFMF

73.MMFMFF

74.FMFFFM

75.MFFFFM

76.MFMMMM

77.FMFMFM

78.FFFFMM

79.MFFMMM

80.FFFFMF

81.FFFFFF all same sex (4)

82.MFFMFF

83.MFFFMF

84.FFFFMM

85.FFMFMM

86.MMMMMM all same sex (5)

87.FFFFFM

88.MFFFFM

89.FFMMMM

90.FFMFMF

91.MFFMFF

92.MFMMMF

93.MMFMMF

94.FFMMMM

95.FFFFFM

96.MFMMMF

97.FFFMFF

98.MMMMFM

99.FFMFFM

100.FMMFMF

I then ran 100 of the above samples. The following results show that in 100 selections of 6 fish, it is possible to never have the occasion happen where you do not have a pair (see 5, 75 and 97) but...

...it also shows, that in 100 selections of 6 fish, it is also possible to have a 9% (see 74) rate of

6 Fish Probability

1. 4% same sex in 100 sample

2. 3% same sex in 100 sample

3. 1% same sex in 100 sample

4. 7% same sex in 100 sample

5. 0% same sex in 100 sample

6. 6% same sex in 100 sample

7. 3% same sex in 100 sample

8. 1% same sex in 100 sample

9. 1% same sex in 100 sample

10. 4% same sex in 100 sample

11. 6% same sex in 100 sample

12. 5% same sex in 100 sample

13. 3% same sex in 100 sample

14. 2% same sex in 100 sample

15. 3% same sex in 100 sample

16. 1% same sex in 100 sample

17. 3% same sex in 100 sample

18. 3% same sex in 100 sample

19. 3% same sex in 100 sample

20. 4% same sex in 100 sample

21. 1% same sex in 100 sample

22. 3% same sex in 100 sample

23. 2% same sex in 100 sample

24. 2% same sex in 100 sample

25. 3% same sex in 100 sample

26. 2% same sex in 100 sample

27. 1% same sex in 100 sample

28. 1% same sex in 100 sample

29. 4% same sex in 100 sample

30. 2% same sex in 100 sample

31. 2% same sex in 100 sample

32. 3% same sex in 100 sample

33. 2% same sex in 100 sample

34. 5% same sex in 100 sample

35. 2% same sex in 100 sample

36. 3% same sex in 100 sample

37. 4% same sex in 100 sample

38. 4% same sex in 100 sample

39. 3% same sex in 100 sample

40. 2% same sex in 100 sample

41. 2% same sex in 100 sample

42. 4% same sex in 100 sample

43. 2% same sex in 100 sample

44. 1% same sex in 100 sample

45. 3% same sex in 100 sample

46. 1% same sex in 100 sample

47. 5% same sex in 100 sample

48. 5% same sex in 100 sample

49. 3% same sex in 100 sample

50. 1% same sex in 100 sample

51. 2% same sex in 100 sample

52. 3% same sex in 100 sample

53. 2% same sex in 100 sample

54. 5% same sex in 100 sample

55. 2% same sex in 100 sample

56. 5% same sex in 100 sample

57. 2% same sex in 100 sample

58. 1% same sex in 100 sample

59. 5% same sex in 100 sample

60. 1% same sex in 100 sample

61. 3% same sex in 100 sample

62. 2% same sex in 100 sample

63. 7% same sex in 100 sample

64. 2% same sex in 100 sample

65. 5% same sex in 100 sample

66. 3% same sex in 100 sample

67. 3% same sex in 100 sample

68. 4% same sex in 100 sample

69. 1% same sex in 100 sample

70. 3% same sex in 100 sample

71. 5% same sex in 100 sample

72. 4% same sex in 100 sample

73. 3% same sex in 100 sample

74. 9% same sex in 100 sample

75. 0% same sex in 100 sample

76. 7% same sex in 100 sample

77. 3% same sex in 100 sample

78. 1% same sex in 100 sample

79. 1% same sex in 100 sample

80. 1% same sex in 100 sample

81. 4% same sex in 100 sample

82. 3% same sex in 100 sample

83. 2% same sex in 100 sample

84. 2% same sex in 100 sample

85. 2% same sex in 100 sample

86. 2% same sex in 100 sample

87. 2% same sex in 100 sample

88. 4% same sex in 100 sample

89. 2% same sex in 100 sample

90. 4% same sex in 100 sample

91. 5% same sex in 100 sample

92. 6% same sex in 100 sample

93. 2% same sex in 100 sample

94. 1% same sex in 100 sample

95. 3% same sex in 100 sample

96. 1% same sex in 100 sample

97. 0% same sex in 100 sample

98. 2% same sex in 100 sample

99. 2% same sex in 100 sample

100. 5% same sex in 100 sample

Even though statistically there is only a 3.125% chance of having a same sex group of 6 fish, depending on how your sample falls, it could be as high as 7% or even 9%. So, it might happen more than you might think.

(A prize for the longest post ever!)

__6 Fish Probability__1.FMFFMF

2.MFFFMM

3.MFMFMM

4.FMMFFF

5.MMFMFF

6.FFMMFF

7.FMMFFF

8.MMFMFF

9.MFMMMM

10.MMMFFM

11.FMMFFF

12.MMMFMM

13.MMMMMF

14.FFFFFF all same sex (1)

15.FMMMFF

16.FMMFFF

17.FMMFFM

18.FMFFMF

19.FMFMMF

20.MMFMMM

21.MMMMMM all same sex (2)

22.MFMFMM

23.FMFFMF

24.FFMMMM

25.FMMMFF

26.MFFFMM

27.MMFMFM

28.FFMMMF

29.MFMMMF

30.FFFFFM

31.FMMMFM

32.MFFMMM

33.MFMFMF

34.MFMFFM

35.MMMMMF

36.FFFFMF

37.MFMFFF

38.MMFMMF

39.FFMMMM

40.FFFFMF

41.FFFMFF

42.MFFMMF

43.FMMMFM

44.MFFMFM

45.FFMMMM

46.MMMFFM

47.FFFMMM

48.FFFFMM

49.MFFMMF

50.FFMFFF

51.MFFFFM

52.FMFMMM

53.FMMMMM

54.MMMMMM all same sex (3)

55.FFMFFM

56.FFMMFF

57.FMFFFM

58.FMMFMM

59.MFMMFF

60.FFFFMM

61.FMMFMF

62.MMMMFF

63.MFMFMF

64.FFMMFM

65.MFFFMM

66.FMMMFF

67.FMFMFF

68.MMMMFM

69.FMFMFF

70.MFMFMF

71.MMFMMF

72.FMMFMF

73.MMFMFF

74.FMFFFM

75.MFFFFM

76.MFMMMM

77.FMFMFM

78.FFFFMM

79.MFFMMM

80.FFFFMF

81.FFFFFF all same sex (4)

82.MFFMFF

83.MFFFMF

84.FFFFMM

85.FFMFMM

86.MMMMMM all same sex (5)

87.FFFFFM

88.MFFFFM

89.FFMMMM

90.FFMFMF

91.MFFMFF

92.MFMMMF

93.MMFMMF

94.FFMMMM

95.FFFFFM

96.MFMMMF

97.FFFMFF

98.MMMMFM

99.FFMFFM

100.FMMFMF

__Further Sampling__I then ran 100 of the above samples. The following results show that in 100 selections of 6 fish, it is possible to never have the occasion happen where you do not have a pair (see 5, 75 and 97) but...

...it also shows, that in 100 selections of 6 fish, it is also possible to have a 9% (see 74) rate of

__not__having a pair.6 Fish Probability

1. 4% same sex in 100 sample

2. 3% same sex in 100 sample

3. 1% same sex in 100 sample

4. 7% same sex in 100 sample

5. 0% same sex in 100 sample

6. 6% same sex in 100 sample

7. 3% same sex in 100 sample

8. 1% same sex in 100 sample

9. 1% same sex in 100 sample

10. 4% same sex in 100 sample

11. 6% same sex in 100 sample

12. 5% same sex in 100 sample

13. 3% same sex in 100 sample

14. 2% same sex in 100 sample

15. 3% same sex in 100 sample

16. 1% same sex in 100 sample

17. 3% same sex in 100 sample

18. 3% same sex in 100 sample

19. 3% same sex in 100 sample

20. 4% same sex in 100 sample

21. 1% same sex in 100 sample

22. 3% same sex in 100 sample

23. 2% same sex in 100 sample

24. 2% same sex in 100 sample

25. 3% same sex in 100 sample

26. 2% same sex in 100 sample

27. 1% same sex in 100 sample

28. 1% same sex in 100 sample

29. 4% same sex in 100 sample

30. 2% same sex in 100 sample

31. 2% same sex in 100 sample

32. 3% same sex in 100 sample

33. 2% same sex in 100 sample

34. 5% same sex in 100 sample

35. 2% same sex in 100 sample

36. 3% same sex in 100 sample

37. 4% same sex in 100 sample

38. 4% same sex in 100 sample

39. 3% same sex in 100 sample

40. 2% same sex in 100 sample

41. 2% same sex in 100 sample

42. 4% same sex in 100 sample

43. 2% same sex in 100 sample

44. 1% same sex in 100 sample

45. 3% same sex in 100 sample

46. 1% same sex in 100 sample

47. 5% same sex in 100 sample

48. 5% same sex in 100 sample

49. 3% same sex in 100 sample

50. 1% same sex in 100 sample

51. 2% same sex in 100 sample

52. 3% same sex in 100 sample

53. 2% same sex in 100 sample

54. 5% same sex in 100 sample

55. 2% same sex in 100 sample

56. 5% same sex in 100 sample

57. 2% same sex in 100 sample

58. 1% same sex in 100 sample

59. 5% same sex in 100 sample

60. 1% same sex in 100 sample

61. 3% same sex in 100 sample

62. 2% same sex in 100 sample

63. 7% same sex in 100 sample

64. 2% same sex in 100 sample

65. 5% same sex in 100 sample

66. 3% same sex in 100 sample

67. 3% same sex in 100 sample

68. 4% same sex in 100 sample

69. 1% same sex in 100 sample

70. 3% same sex in 100 sample

71. 5% same sex in 100 sample

72. 4% same sex in 100 sample

73. 3% same sex in 100 sample

74. 9% same sex in 100 sample

75. 0% same sex in 100 sample

76. 7% same sex in 100 sample

77. 3% same sex in 100 sample

78. 1% same sex in 100 sample

79. 1% same sex in 100 sample

80. 1% same sex in 100 sample

81. 4% same sex in 100 sample

82. 3% same sex in 100 sample

83. 2% same sex in 100 sample

84. 2% same sex in 100 sample

85. 2% same sex in 100 sample

86. 2% same sex in 100 sample

87. 2% same sex in 100 sample

88. 4% same sex in 100 sample

89. 2% same sex in 100 sample

90. 4% same sex in 100 sample

91. 5% same sex in 100 sample

92. 6% same sex in 100 sample

93. 2% same sex in 100 sample

94. 1% same sex in 100 sample

95. 3% same sex in 100 sample

96. 1% same sex in 100 sample

97. 0% same sex in 100 sample

98. 2% same sex in 100 sample

99. 2% same sex in 100 sample

100. 5% same sex in 100 sample

__Conclusion__Even though statistically there is only a 3.125% chance of having a same sex group of 6 fish, depending on how your sample falls, it could be as high as 7% or even 9%. So, it might happen more than you might think.

(A prize for the longest post ever!)

## Re: Buying Juveniles

If this idea is taken one step further, to look at how many

(I reduced the sample size to 10 for readability but that's still 1,000 selections)

6 Fish Probability

1. 2% same sex in 100 sample with 19% 1xPair and 44% 2xPair and 35% 3xPair.

2. 3% same sex in 100 sample with 18% 1xPair and 54% 2xPair and 25% 3xPair.

3. 1% same sex in 100 sample with 19% 1xPair and 49% 2xPair and 31% 3xPair.

4. 2% same sex in 100 sample with 31% 1xPair and 47% 2xPair and 20% 3xPair.

5. 4% same sex in 100 sample with 18% 1xPair and 49% 2xPair and 29% 3xPair.

6. 3% same sex in 100 sample with 16% 1xPair and 57% 2xPair and 24% 3xPair.

7. 4% same sex in 100 sample with 16% 1xPair and 50% 2xPair and 30% 3xPair.

8. 3% same sex in 100 sample with 14% 1xPair and 61% 2xPair and 22% 3xPair.

9. 2% same sex in 100 sample with 16% 1xPair and 52% 2xPair and 30% 3xPair.

10. 3% same sex in 100 sample with 19% 1xPair and 45% 2xPair and 33% 3xPair.

So you can see, that even if you get past the 'same sex' problem, you're still have to get past the '1xPair' problem, which seems to be about 20% in this sample.

Overall, it looks like, there's a 50% probability of getting 2 pairs with 6 fish and about 33% chance of getting 3 pairs but putting that aside, look at random sample 4:

4.

So that's a 33% (2%+31%) probability that you'll end up with just 1 pair or less (no pairs at all) with 6 fish. There is no point setting yourself up for the possibility of such a poor result. Which is why I'm advocating the 6+

I believe larger groups 6+ can significantly improve the availability of pairs and improve productivity and just to demonstrate this, here's a 10 fish sample, which I'm sure you'll agree, looks more favorable. It avoids the same sex problem and reduces the 1 pair problem significantly. With a very high probability of say 80 - 90% of 3,4 and 5 pairs.

10 Fish Probability

1. 0% same sex in 100 sample with 1% 1xPair and 10% 2xPair and 27% 3xPair and 37% 4xPair and 25% 5xPair.

2. 0% same sex in 100 sample with 0% 1xPair and 7% 2xPair and 33% 3xPair and 40% 4xPair and 20% 5xPair.

3. 0% same sex in 100 sample with 1% 1xPair and 12% 2xPair and 19% 3xPair and 44% 4xPair and 24% 5xPair.

4. 0% same sex in 100 sample with 2% 1xPair and 8% 2xPair and 17% 3xPair and 41% 4xPair and 32% 5xPair.

5. 0% same sex in 100 sample with 2% 1xPair and 14% 2xPair and 22% 3xPair and 37% 4xPair and 25% 5xPair.

6. 0% same sex in 100 sample with 0% 1xPair and 7% 2xPair and 25% 3xPair and 35% 4xPair and 33% 5xPair.

7. 0% same sex in 100 sample with 0% 1xPair and 4% 2xPair and 32% 3xPair and 41% 4xPair and 23% 5xPair.

8. 0% same sex in 100 sample with 0% 1xPair and 16% 2xPair and 25% 3xPair and 36% 4xPair and 23% 5xPair.

9. 1% same sex in 100 sample with 0% 1xPair and 9% 2xPair and 21% 3xPair and 43% 4xPair and 26% 5xPair.

10. 0% same sex in 100 sample with 3% 1xPair and 10% 2xPair and 24% 3xPair and 39% 4xPair and 24% 5xPair.

That's enough number crunching for today!

__pairs__are possible:(I reduced the sample size to 10 for readability but that's still 1,000 selections)

6 Fish Probability

1. 2% same sex in 100 sample with 19% 1xPair and 44% 2xPair and 35% 3xPair.

2. 3% same sex in 100 sample with 18% 1xPair and 54% 2xPair and 25% 3xPair.

3. 1% same sex in 100 sample with 19% 1xPair and 49% 2xPair and 31% 3xPair.

4. 2% same sex in 100 sample with 31% 1xPair and 47% 2xPair and 20% 3xPair.

5. 4% same sex in 100 sample with 18% 1xPair and 49% 2xPair and 29% 3xPair.

6. 3% same sex in 100 sample with 16% 1xPair and 57% 2xPair and 24% 3xPair.

7. 4% same sex in 100 sample with 16% 1xPair and 50% 2xPair and 30% 3xPair.

8. 3% same sex in 100 sample with 14% 1xPair and 61% 2xPair and 22% 3xPair.

9. 2% same sex in 100 sample with 16% 1xPair and 52% 2xPair and 30% 3xPair.

10. 3% same sex in 100 sample with 19% 1xPair and 45% 2xPair and 33% 3xPair.

So you can see, that even if you get past the 'same sex' problem, you're still have to get past the '1xPair' problem, which seems to be about 20% in this sample.

Overall, it looks like, there's a 50% probability of getting 2 pairs with 6 fish and about 33% chance of getting 3 pairs but putting that aside, look at random sample 4:

4.

**2% same sex in 100 sample with 31% 1xPair**and 47% 2xPair and 20% 3xPair.So that's a 33% (2%+31%) probability that you'll end up with just 1 pair or less (no pairs at all) with 6 fish. There is no point setting yourself up for the possibility of such a poor result. Which is why I'm advocating the 6+

I believe larger groups 6+ can significantly improve the availability of pairs and improve productivity and just to demonstrate this, here's a 10 fish sample, which I'm sure you'll agree, looks more favorable. It avoids the same sex problem and reduces the 1 pair problem significantly. With a very high probability of say 80 - 90% of 3,4 and 5 pairs.

10 Fish Probability

1. 0% same sex in 100 sample with 1% 1xPair and 10% 2xPair and 27% 3xPair and 37% 4xPair and 25% 5xPair.

2. 0% same sex in 100 sample with 0% 1xPair and 7% 2xPair and 33% 3xPair and 40% 4xPair and 20% 5xPair.

3. 0% same sex in 100 sample with 1% 1xPair and 12% 2xPair and 19% 3xPair and 44% 4xPair and 24% 5xPair.

4. 0% same sex in 100 sample with 2% 1xPair and 8% 2xPair and 17% 3xPair and 41% 4xPair and 32% 5xPair.

5. 0% same sex in 100 sample with 2% 1xPair and 14% 2xPair and 22% 3xPair and 37% 4xPair and 25% 5xPair.

6. 0% same sex in 100 sample with 0% 1xPair and 7% 2xPair and 25% 3xPair and 35% 4xPair and 33% 5xPair.

7. 0% same sex in 100 sample with 0% 1xPair and 4% 2xPair and 32% 3xPair and 41% 4xPair and 23% 5xPair.

8. 0% same sex in 100 sample with 0% 1xPair and 16% 2xPair and 25% 3xPair and 36% 4xPair and 23% 5xPair.

9. 1% same sex in 100 sample with 0% 1xPair and 9% 2xPair and 21% 3xPair and 43% 4xPair and 26% 5xPair.

10. 0% same sex in 100 sample with 3% 1xPair and 10% 2xPair and 24% 3xPair and 39% 4xPair and 24% 5xPair.

That's enough number crunching for today!

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